Today’s update discusses the state's latest:

• predicted monetary losses
• projected peak in deaths and resource uses

ECONOMY

• The Institute of Government and Public Affairs (“IGPA”) at the University of Illinois has released a report that estimates Illinois could lose almost $30 billion between calendar years 2020 and 2023 under the most severe model of a projected pandemic-related economic downturn followed by a weak recovery. Even under the best-case scenario projected by the IGPA, the impact on Illinois’ state revenue could be worse than the Great Recession of 2007-2009. In an effort to get the most accurate projections, the IGPA uses new, national models of economic outcomes to project the potential impact of the three largest sources of state revenue: individual income tax, corporate income tax, and sales tax. The report strongly suggests that policymakers focus on transparency, protection of the vulnerable, economic efficiency, minimizing borrowing for operations, and flexibility (known as the Five Core Principles) to maintain essential public services and minimize economic damage from the pandemic.

HEALTH

• A new model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts Illinois’ peak in deaths and resource use related to COVID-19 to be this past weekend. The model then projects a decline in deaths and resource use with an expected flat line on both deaths and resource use occurring early to mid-May. The projections are based on the assumption that residents will continue to follow social distancing guidelines.